Currency rates in exchanges

Amid indirect Iran–U.S. negotiations with Omani mediation, Iran’s currency market sees sharp fluctuations. Explore how dollar and rial rates reflect hopes for sanctions relief and economic stability.

As indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States quietly resume with Omani mediation, Iran’s volatile currency market is reacting sharply—signaling both hope and uncertainty as the rial gains strength against the U.S. dollar in anticipation of potential diplomatic breakthroughs.

In recent weeks, indirect negotiations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have once again drawn attention both domestically and internationally. What sets this round of talks apart is that they are being conducted indirectly, with mediation by the Sultanate of Oman. The first round was held in Muscat, while the second took place in Rome, Italy. Unofficial sources have also indicated that a third round may be scheduled in the near future.

Beyond the political implications, the direct impact of these talks on Iran’s domestic economy—particularly the foreign exchange market—has become a central concern.

According to Reuters: “These negotiations are being conducted indirectly through Omani officials. There has been no direct contact between Iranian and American representatives, but messages are being exchanged swiftly between the two sides.” (Reuters, April 2025)

Iranian newspaper Shargh also reported: “Despite the initial positive atmosphere, Iranian officials have emphasized that the talks are limited to message exchanges without direct U.S. participation, focusing on reducing regional tensions and potential economic openings.” (Shargh Daily, Farvardin 1404 / March–April 2025)

A Sharp Drop in the Dollar Following First Round

On the Saturday coinciding with the first round of talks in Muscat, the Iranian open market witnessed an unprecedented drop in the U.S. dollar rate—from approximately 105,000 tomans to 83,000 tomans—a nearly 20% decline. This dramatic fall also affected other currencies like the euro and Canadian dollar.

This steep decline was attributed to positive market expectations regarding the outcome of the negotiations. Many analysts believe that investors and the public perceived the talks as a sign of easing tensions and possible sanction relief, prompting a swift market response.

Volatility During the Second Round: Optimism Meets Uncertainty

During the second round in Rome, the dollar fluctuated between 85,000 and 86,000 tomans—still significantly lower than pre-talk levels. However, the continued fluctuations reflect underlying uncertainty in the market.

Some economists point to the unpredictable and often contradictory positions of U.S. President Donald Trump as a key factor behind this volatility. While the general tone of the talks has remained positive, historical shifts in U.S. policy toward Iran have kept investors cautious.

Canadian Dollar and Other Currencies Also Drop

In tandem with the U.S. dollar, other currencies also declined. The Canadian dollar, for example, fell from over 70,000 tomans to around 60,500 tomans—a notable decrease that underscores the broader sensitivity of Iran’s currency market to geopolitical developments.

Market Responds to Prospects of a Third Round

News of a potential third round has bolstered hopes among some market players that currency rates will continue to decline—or at least stabilize. However, experts warn that a breakdown in talks or a more aggressive U.S. stance could trigger a swift reversal and push rates back up.

Conclusion: Stability—The Market’s Primary Demand

What market actors are now demanding above all else is stability. Past experiences have shown that severe instability hampers economic planning and deters domestic investment.

The direct impact of political developments on Iran’s currency market is undeniable. In the current climate, analysts advise businesses and investors to adopt a long-term, cautious outlook and avoid hasty decisions.

As the outcome of the negotiations remains uncertain, the critical question remains: will the foreign exchange market move toward greater stability, experience further decline, or revert to higher levels?

Keywords: Iran–U.S. indirect talks, currency volatility, U.S. dollar in Iran, Iran rial, foreign exchange market, Omani mediation, sanctions relief, Canadian dollar in Iran, Trump Iran policy, geopolitical tensions